Post by account_disabled on Feb 20, 2024 5:31:54 GMT -5
An economy in a state of extre fragility looks with concern at the loop of weaknesses in which the political system remains blocked.
The opposition sector most hostile to the Government launched a premature general strike, with barely concealed proclamations of dismissal. The strike was a failure along the entire line. The strike had a squalid performance. The street mobilization was nourished by the apparatuses directed by the most rancid union bureaucracies. The speeches were monopolized by the leaders most refractory to the will for change that has just been expressed as a new majority at the polls. The entire stage seemed set to help the Government and the Government took advantage of this early outpouring.
A few hours later, it was the government's turn to expose its own fragility. The omnibus bill that the Casa Rosada sent to Congress to be discussed in extraordinary Asia Mobile Number List sessions suffered a significant setback. The government unpacked and removed from Parliament's previous deliberations the fiscal package, the key section for the immediate future of economic policy. The negotiations with the legislative blocs reached the point of obtaining a majority opinion favorable to the ruling party, but with so many explicit reservations about the fiscal package that foreshadowed a defeat for President Milei in the lottery.
These reserves affected the interests of the Casa Rosada both on the income and expense sides. The two most conflictive points: the expected income from withholdings on exports and the expense of the pension system. Against these adjustments, the hard opposition and also the one most inclined to offer guarantees of governability actually united – with different discourses. The sector most open to dialogue subordinated its strategy to the demands of the provincial governors. There was a division of tasks between inorganic and evident: legislators who report to their parties assumed opposition to the spending adjustment; The legislators, referring to the governors, endorsed the claim for income.
Opinion | The industry collapsed in December, fueling stagflation.Milei's decision to withdraw the fiscal package puts both segments of the negotiation back to zero. If no change is approved, retirements will continue to be tied to the regressive scheme established by Alberto Fernández. Governors will be able to explain to their voters that they did not accept more fiscal pressure, but they will be totally exposed to the defunding of their provincial liabilities. The decision of the Casa Rosada also nullifies the concessions it had made regarding the distribution of money laundering and the moratorium, and the reversal of the jubilee made with the Income Tax.
Milei's bet is high risk. She puts the governors before the challenge of a real adjustment. But she also exposes the president to the distrust of economic actors who are trying to assess the extent to which his political experiment in lobbying Congress will work without enough seats to sustain it. Milei needs to demonstrate as soon as possible that there is progress in substantially reducing the fiscal deficit. For that he needs to adjust expenses (the pension is perhaps the most sensitive; also the most inflexible) and increase income.
Retentions are fundamental in this engineering. In the current exchange rate scheme, they are a constitutive part in the formation of the price of the dollar, a substantial factor in the order of expectations with which the general price level is guided: inflation, key to the electoral contract that Milei raised.
The opposition sector most hostile to the Government launched a premature general strike, with barely concealed proclamations of dismissal. The strike was a failure along the entire line. The strike had a squalid performance. The street mobilization was nourished by the apparatuses directed by the most rancid union bureaucracies. The speeches were monopolized by the leaders most refractory to the will for change that has just been expressed as a new majority at the polls. The entire stage seemed set to help the Government and the Government took advantage of this early outpouring.
A few hours later, it was the government's turn to expose its own fragility. The omnibus bill that the Casa Rosada sent to Congress to be discussed in extraordinary Asia Mobile Number List sessions suffered a significant setback. The government unpacked and removed from Parliament's previous deliberations the fiscal package, the key section for the immediate future of economic policy. The negotiations with the legislative blocs reached the point of obtaining a majority opinion favorable to the ruling party, but with so many explicit reservations about the fiscal package that foreshadowed a defeat for President Milei in the lottery.
These reserves affected the interests of the Casa Rosada both on the income and expense sides. The two most conflictive points: the expected income from withholdings on exports and the expense of the pension system. Against these adjustments, the hard opposition and also the one most inclined to offer guarantees of governability actually united – with different discourses. The sector most open to dialogue subordinated its strategy to the demands of the provincial governors. There was a division of tasks between inorganic and evident: legislators who report to their parties assumed opposition to the spending adjustment; The legislators, referring to the governors, endorsed the claim for income.
Opinion | The industry collapsed in December, fueling stagflation.Milei's decision to withdraw the fiscal package puts both segments of the negotiation back to zero. If no change is approved, retirements will continue to be tied to the regressive scheme established by Alberto Fernández. Governors will be able to explain to their voters that they did not accept more fiscal pressure, but they will be totally exposed to the defunding of their provincial liabilities. The decision of the Casa Rosada also nullifies the concessions it had made regarding the distribution of money laundering and the moratorium, and the reversal of the jubilee made with the Income Tax.
Milei's bet is high risk. She puts the governors before the challenge of a real adjustment. But she also exposes the president to the distrust of economic actors who are trying to assess the extent to which his political experiment in lobbying Congress will work without enough seats to sustain it. Milei needs to demonstrate as soon as possible that there is progress in substantially reducing the fiscal deficit. For that he needs to adjust expenses (the pension is perhaps the most sensitive; also the most inflexible) and increase income.
Retentions are fundamental in this engineering. In the current exchange rate scheme, they are a constitutive part in the formation of the price of the dollar, a substantial factor in the order of expectations with which the general price level is guided: inflation, key to the electoral contract that Milei raised.